Marketing
Switching from CPA to payback was the right move. But payback hides a second trap: optimise for how fast the cash comes back, and you defund the channels that climb highest. We call that the Speed Trap. The way out is Curve Height — where the curve ends up, not how fast it crosses zero.
Churn
“Churn” is one word for three different ways of leaving — voluntary, involuntary, and silent. The overwhelming majority is silent, tripping no flag at all. We call it the Quiet Exit, and the habit of waiting for a clean after-the-fact line the Confirmation Reflex.
Retention
The first-to-second deposit is the steepest drop in the whole lifecycle — roughly four in ten never make it. But the odds invert the moment it's crossed. We call that asymmetry the Repeat Cliff, and the narrow window to cross it the Incubation Clock.
Marketing
Two channels can post the same CPA and build completely different businesses. CPA-as-a-target chases the cheapest conversion and concentrates spend on the lowest-quality channels — the CPA Ratchet. The way out is Channel Yield.
Bonus
Cash bonuses buy activity and zero ownership. A player who deposits for a match has been rented, not retained. We call it Rented Loyalty — and the operators pulling ahead have stopped paying for it.
VIP
Healthy high-value play and gambling harm share almost every surface marker. On a single value score they're the same data point — the Twin Signal. The fix is the Dual Track: value and risk scored in parallel, with risk holding the veto.
Marketing
Every player you acquire starts as a blank slate. So most operators wait for history before they act. We call the cost of that waiting the Cold-Start Tax. Here's how to stop paying it.
Retention
Most operators run the first two weeks as an onboarding flow that ends at the first deposit. That's the mistake. The first deposit is the Starting Gun — the opening of the highest-leverage retention window in the lifecycle.
Retention
Bonuses feel like marketing spend. In reality they are direct margin cost — and most of that cost lands on players where it does nothing. This is the Generosity Trap.
Marketing
Marketing leaders make scale, cap and budget decisions every week. The data that would tell them whether a campaign was worth it doesn't arrive for 90 days. The cost of that gap is structural — and it can be closed.
VIP
Most operators identify their highest-value players 30–60 days too late. By then, the relationship has already been shaped — and a competitor with earlier intelligence has had open access. This is the Competitor Exposure Window.
Retention
Most CRM systems wait for silence before acting on retention. By then, recovery has multiplied in cost and the players still worth saving have moved on. Here's the Descending Curve — and what acting earlier looks like in practice.